This season’s dramatic trilogy between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks will come to an end when the NFC West rivals battle in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday, with the winner claiming a spot in Super Bowl LX.
Ironically, the Super Bowl will be held at the home of another bitter rival, the San Francisco 49ers. The Seahawks (15-3) dispatched the 49ers for the second time in three weeks during the divisional playoffs, with the Rams earning a return ticket to Seattle with an overtime victory at Chicago.
The Rams (14-5) held a 16-point fourth quarter lead in Seattle in Week 16, only to watch the Seahawks mount a furious rally and win with a two-point conversion in overtime. That ultimately led to Los Angeles needing to win three playoff road games to reach the Super Bowl.
They have completed the first two legs of the journey, but will enter the third as a slight underdog.
ODDS AND TRENDS
The Seahawks are a consensus 2.5-point favorite, with the margin chalked up to their significant home-field advantage at raucous Lumen Field. The line has held steady throughout the week at BetMGM, where Seattle has been backed by 72% of the total spread-line bets while Los Angeles has drawn slightly more money at 51%.
The moneyline has also seen split action. The Rams (+120) have been backed by 56% of the total bets, with the Seahawks (-145) supported by 62% of the money.
The total points line opened at 47.5 but has shifted slightly to 46.5 with the Under backed by 85% of the money.
PROP PICKS
–Rams WR Puka Nacua 100+ Receiving Yards (+114 at DraftKings): Los Angeles was without Davante Adams and Seattle still had no answer in Week 16 for Nakua, who torched the Seahawks for 225 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 12 receptions. Nakua was targeted 16 times — twice as many as any other Rams pass catcher. He had eight catches for 75 yards in the first meeting.
–Seahawks WR Rashid Shaheed Over 1.5 Rushing Yards (-145 at BetMGM): This somewhat offbeat prop pick has been the most popular at the book. The special teams standout has struggled to get heavily involved in the passing game since being acquired from New Orleans in November. However, he was used twice on end-arounds last weekend, ripping off 30 yards on one carry and losing six on the other. With backup running back Zach Charbonnet out, Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak could get more creative with Shaheed.
KEY STAT
Six of Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold’s 14 interceptions during the regular season came against the Rams.
INSIDE EDGE
The Seahawks don’t blitz often, but they regularly brought extra pass rushers at 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy last week while racking up a pair of sacks, five quarterback hits and seven passes defensed. Opponents regularly try to bring the heat against Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, who lacks mobility at 37 years old. But he also led the NFL with 18 touchdown passes against the blitz this season, according to Inside Edge’s Remarkable engine.
RAM TOUGH
The Rams have had Darnold’s number. In a playoff game last year while with Minnesota, Darnold was sacked nine times and committed a pair of turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown, in a 27-9 defeat during a game that was moved to Glendale, Ariz., because of last year’s wildfires in Los Angeles.
In Week 11 this season, Darnold threw four interceptions in a 21-19 loss to the host Rams, though he nearly rallied Seattle to a victory before Jason Myers’ 61-yard field-goal attempt as time expired faded wide right.
On Dec. 18 in Seattle, Darnold was sacked four times and threw a pair of picks as the Seahawks fell behind by 16 points in the fourth quarter. He then led a miraculous comeback and found backup tight end Eric Saubert for a two-point conversion in overtime of a 38-37 victory.
Darnold credited the Rams’ defense for having a “really good scheme” that disguises their coverages. He said a key will be “staying on schedule … staying positive on first and second down.”
“It’s win or go home at this point,” Darnold said. “But we look at it as another game. We trust our process throughout the week.”
ROAD WARRIORS OR ROAD WEARY?
The Los Angeles offense, which led the league in yards (394.6 per game) and scoring (30.5) during the regular season, struggled with a cold and hostile environment in Chicago last Sunday.
It will be even louder Sunday, but not colder, in Seattle.
“When you go into the environment that we’re going into here on Sunday in Seattle, everybody’s gotta be on the same page and communicate,” Stafford said. “That’s what offense is all about. You gotta have 11 people working as one.”
Adams, who led the NFL with 14 receiving touchdowns in the regular season, missed the last game against Seattle with an injury.
“This is the biggest game,” Adams told reporters this week. “Whatever game you’re currently in is the biggest game of the year. But this is, obviously, the biggest game right here. They took care of business against us last time. It’s tough being on the sideline … even though we did take care of business on offense and had a good day. But it’s time to finish it off this time.”
INJURY REPORT
Darnold was a limited participant in practice all week but wasn’t given an official game injury designation on Friday.
“Just attacking rehab these last couple days,” he said. “Obviously, will be throughout the week; just got to continue to prepare and get my body right for Sunday.”
Darnold tweaked his oblique in practice last week, but wasn’t called on to do much in the rout of the 49ers. Darnold was 12-of-17 passing for 124 yards and a touchdown to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and was turnover-free.
“Feel like the process is going right along where it should be,” Darnold said on Friday. “Feeling really good for Sunday.”
Backup running back Zach Charbonnet, who led the Seahawks in the regular season with 12 rushing touchdowns, suffered a torn ACL in his knee against the 49ers and is out for the rest of the season. Starter Kenneth Walker III carried a heavier load against San Francisco, rushing for 116 yards and three touchdowns.
The Seahawks also have an injury concern at left tackle, with the top three candidates ailing. Starter Charles Cross left in the third quarter last week with a foot injury and didn’t return. His backup, Josh Jones, wasn’t active against the 49ers with knee and ankle issues and third-stringer Amari Kight, a rookie, played the final 17 snaps but missed practice time this week with a knee issue.
Cross resumed full practice activity on Friday and should be set for the NFC title game. Jones is listed as questionable, and Kight is considered doubtful.
Seattle ruled out linebacker Chazz Surratt (ankle) while listing fullback Robbie Ouzts (neck) as questionable.
The Rams are relatively healthy, with only linebacker Byron Young (knee) considered questionable among active players. Offensive tackle Rob Havenstein, on injured reserve but designated to return, will remain sidelined because of an ankle injury.
PREDICTION
The Seahawks earned a bye with the No. 1 seed, but they enter Sunday with far bigger injury concerns with Charbonnet out and Darnold and Cross playing through ailments. The Rams held double-digit leads in both regular-season meetings, with Seattle constantly playing from behind. The loss of Charbonnet is significant, especially in the red zone, and Darnold has yet to prove he can beat an elite, healthy opponent in the postseason. –Rams 27, Seahawks 24
