The Tampa Bay Buccaneers suddenly find themselves in desperate need of a victory when the Atlanta Falcons visit to kick off Week 15 in the NFL on Thursday night.
Upset by New Orleans last week, Tampa Bay is now tied atop the NFC South at 7-6 with the Carolina Panthers. Meanwhile, the 4-9 Falcons are trying to reverse a skid that has seen Atlanta drop seven of its past eight games.
ODDS AND TRENDS
The Bucs are consensus 5.5-point favorites. That includes at BetMGM, where Tampa Bay has been backed by 78% of the spread-line bets and 63% of the money. The Bucs’ -225 moneyline has been even more popular, drawing 67% and 87% of the action, respectively.
The total points line at the book has shifted from 44.5 to 44.0, with the Over supported by 56% of the bets and 61% of the money.
PROP PICKS
–Falcons RB Bijan Robinson Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM): Robinson caught just two passes for 8 yards in Seattle last week but has generally been an integral part of the Falcons’ passing game with 602 receiving yards this season. Before the Seahawks game, Robinson had at least 37 receiving yards nine times this season, and at least 39 in eight of those. This is the most popular player prop at the book for this matchup.
–Bucs RB Bucky Irving 3+ Receptions (-178 at DraftKings): Irving has a pair of catches in both games since returning from a seven-game absence. However, he had 4+ catches in each of his four games before getting injured and his workload figures to only increase. Larger potential payouts are available for 4+ (+106) and 5+ (+252) receptions.
INSIDE EDGE
Falcons running backs have averaged 10.3 yards after the catch this season, second best in the NFL, according to Inside Edge’s Remarkable engine. Meanwhile, the Bucs are second-worst in the league in allowing an average of 11.5 yards after catch per reception to running backs.
KEY STAT
In two outings since injuring his left shoulder, Bucs quarterback Mayfield is averaging just 158 passing yards per game and completed a season-low 46.7% (14 of 30) of his passes against the Saints. The veteran quarterback isn’t using the injury as an excuse, but understands the offense needs to find a rhythm. The Buccaneers are averaging just 15.7 points across their last three games.
“It’s the little things,” Mayfield said of what needs improvement. “Whether it’s me being on time with my footwork, getting the protection aligned, the depths of the routes, it all comes down to executing. It’s not just one thing you can point to, it’s a culmination of things. We’ll get it fixed.”
THEY SAID IT
–“For me, that’s the cost of doing business. You don’t put yourself in positions to worry about those things. As a leader, you’ve got to stand up in front of people and answer the hard questions, and you’ve also got to stand up and be a good example for your guys in how you go and finish things.” –Falcons coach Raheem Morris on questions about his job status
–“I think saying things has merit. I think doing things has probably more merit. It’s more about how you practice, how you prepare, how you play on Thursday night is really what it comes down to.” –Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has thrown for 192 yards per game in four starts in place of the injured Michael Penix Jr. The oldest player in the Atlanta locker room, Cousins acknowledges the need for a vocal leader during the team’s rough stretch, but also knows the on-field performance is paramount.
INJURY REPORT
Falcons wide receiver Drake London hasn’t played since Nov. 16 as he deals with a knee injury. London was a non-participant all week in practice and ruled out on Wednesday.
Tight end Kyle Pitts (knee), edge rusher Jalon Walker (quad) and defensive linemen Brandon Dorlus (groin) and David Onyemata (foot) were listed as questionable on Wednesday.
Mayfield could benefit from the return of six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Mike Evans. He has been out with a broken collarbone since Oct. 20 but the Bucs activated Evans from injured reserve on Wednesday along with wide receiver Jalen McMillan, who has yet to play this season because of a neck injury sustained in an Aug. 26 preseason game.
Evans and McMillan were listed as questionable to play, while tight end Cade Otton (knee) and safety Tykee Smith (neck/shoulder) are doubtful and linebacker SirVocea Dennis (hip) and safety Rashad Wisdom (quad) were ruled out for Thursday’s game.
PREDICTION
Mayfield has struggled since injuring his shoulder and is playing on a short week. But he’s doing it against a reeling Falcons team, with the Bucs at home and getting some reinforcements in their passing game. –Bucs 23, Falcons 20
