Matthew Stafford’s march toward his first NFL Most Valuable Player award went from one of the league’s feel-good stories of 2025 to a significant longshot over four shocking quarters in Atlanta on Monday night.
With only two regular-season games remaining — both against teams out of playoff contention with coaches on the hot seat — Stafford entered Week 17 as the consensus MVP favorite ahead of New England counterpart Drake Maye. That included at BetMGM, where Stafford was the -210 favorite ahead of Maye at +165.
The Falcons’ defense entered Monday night with only 12 interceptions through the team’s 6-9 start. But Atlanta picked Stafford off three times en route to a stunning 27-24 upset on national television.
Compounding matters was the prime-time meltdown came a day after Maye completed 90.5% of his passes while throwing five touchdowns in a clinical destruction of the New York Jets. Despite being pulled in the third quarter, Maye became the fourth Patriots quarterback to pass for at least five touchdowns in a game, joining Tom Brady, Steve Grogan and Babe Parilli.
Combined with Buffalo’s loss to Philadelphia, New England clinched the AFC East title.
The series of events flipped Maye to the prohibitive -700 favorite at BetMGM, while Stafford’s odds sunk to +425.
DraftKings still has the race somewhat closer with Maye the -330 favorite ahead of Stafford at +250.
Stafford’s first three-pick game of the season came at a very inopportune time for both his MVP chances and for the Rams. Sitting in prime position to claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC just two weeks ago, Los Angeles is now locked into a wild-card spot following consecutive losses.
That Maye is at the helm of a division champion while Stafford’s Rams have limped to the finish line might prove to be the differentiating factor in a close statistical comparison.
Stafford has thrown for 4,448 yards and 42 touchdowns against eight interceptions while completing 65.2% of his passes.
Maye has thrown for 4,203 yards and 30 touchdowns against eight interceptions while completing 71.7% of his passes.
Stafford’s MVP chances could be further hindered depending on what approach coach Sean McVay decides to take in Week 18. The Rams can do no better than the No. 5 seed. If San Francisco beats Seattle on Saturday night, Los Angeles will be locked into the No. 6 seed and will have little to play for on Sunday against the 3-13 Arizona Cardinals.
Meanwhile, the Patriots still have a shot at the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage through the AFC playoffs on the line at home against Miami. New England enters Week 18 with identical 13-3 records with Denver. The Broncos play host to the Los Angeles Chargers, who plan to rest starting quarterback Justin Herbert in favor of backup Trey Lance.
For his part, Stafford said he plans to play against the Cardinals.
“I love playing the game,” he said. “So, yeah, I’ll be ready to go.”
